Entering March, China's Paper Industry Enters a New Cycle of Intensive Price Hikes
As March begins, China's domestic paper industry has ushered in a new cycle of intensive price increases. Several leading paper manufacturers have successively issued price hike notices covering mainstream categories such as white kraft paper, white card paper, cultural paper, and packaging paper. The price increases range from 50 yuan to 300 yuan per ton. Driven by falling costs on the supply side and a marginal recovery in downstream demand, expectations for profit repair in the industry are heating up. Consequently, stocks in the A-share paper sector are showing divergent performance, with some targets experiencing phased gains.
From January to February this year, manufacturers of white card paper and household paper led the way with large-scale price adjustments. White card paper prices were uniformly raised by 200 yuan/ton, and household paper by 100 yuan/ton, with the new prices taking effect from March 1st. Recently, Sun Paper (002078) and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) issued notifications stating that starting March 5th, the prices of their white kraft paper products would be uniformly increased by 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the market price for white kraft paper in the Shandong region is approximately 7,200 to 7,400 yuan/ton. Regarding bulk paper types, APP (Sinar Mas) raised prices for cultural paper and white card paper by 200 yuan/ton starting March 1st, while Bohui Paper (600966) simultaneously increased white card paper prices by 200 yuan/ton. In the packaging paper sector, Nine Dragons Paper raised prices for linerboard and corrugated medium at its eight major bases by 50 yuan/ton starting February 25th, and plans to further increase prices for grey-backed white board paper by another 50 yuan/ton on March 25th.
According to the plans released by various paper enterprises, this round of price hikes is concentrated between March 1st and March 5th, reflecting coordinated efforts by top companies to support prices. Industry operating rates are rebounding, inventories are continuously being drawn down, and corporate production and operations are gradually returning to normal.
Industry analysts suggest that the drivers behind this round of paper price increases stem from dual support: improved cost structures and a marginal recovery in demand. On the cost side, since the beginning of 2026, raw material costs in the paper industry have shown a structural divergence. There is a significant difference in performance between hardwood pulp and softwood pulp, while the appreciation of the Renminbi has brought additional cost benefits to the industry.
Specifically, the global supply of wood pulp is generally loose, with port inventories at high levels; notably, the pressure of oversupply in softwood pulp is prominent, keeping its prices relatively low. Hardwood pulp, however, follows a different trend. Overseas pulp mills have continuously raised overseas contract prices from January to March. Due to shipping cycles, this round of price increases is expected to transmit to the domestic spot market with a lag of about two months. In March, domestic hardwood pulp spot prices have already shown signs of stabilizing and slightly rising, providing phased cost support for subsequent price hikes by paper enterprises.
On the demand side, the period from after the Spring Festival to the Lantern Festival is known within the industry as a "mini-spring." As downstream printing and packaging enterprises resume work and production, cultural paper and packaging paper enter the traditional peak season for stockpiling. Order volumes have increased month-on-month, providing a time window on the demand side for paper mills to raise prices. Meanwhile, factors such as environmental production restrictions and industry maintenance have led to a contraction in supply. The gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance creates room for price increases. Furthermore, high value-added products such as separator paper for new energy batteries, medical specialty paper, and semiconductor packaging paper are opening up a "second growth curve" for the paper industry.
In terms of market performance, the A-share paper sector has recently seen an uptrend. Data shows that since the fourth quarter of last year, the paper sector has accumulated a gain of over 13%. Among individual stocks, Bohui Paper has surged approximately 70% since the fourth quarter of last year, Yueyang Forest & Paper has risen 48%, Sun Paper 20%, and Huatai Shares 19%.
Multiple brokerage research reports hold a cautiously optimistic view of the paper industry in 2026. CICC's 2026 outlook for the paper industry points out that the phase of capacity expansion is entering its final stage. New capacity for varieties such as linerboard, corrugated medium, and white card paper is limited, leading to a continuous optimization of the supply-demand structure. Integrated pulp-and-paper enterprises, leveraging their advantages in raw material self-sufficiency, are expected to secure excess profits, and industry concentration is poised to further increase.
A research report from Sealand Securities mentions that new capacity for white card paper is scarce, giving prices upward elasticity, and the profit repair for leading enterprises is highly certain. According to data from Zhuochuang Info, white card paper prices have cumulatively risen by over 290 yuan/ton since the low point in August 2025, indicating a continuous recovery in industry prosperity.
